Tuesday, February 27, 2024

Super Bowl Picks: 3 Betting Experts Weigh In

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The Clock is ticking! Load up on last minute betting advice for Super Bowl LVIII before the Chiefs and 49ers take the field in Las Vegas.


Last Updated:
Feb 11, 2024 1:40 PM ET

Read Time: 4 min

The Super Bowl is just hours away, but there’s still plenty of time to make some last-minute Super Bowl predictions ahead of the NFL’s heavily hyped championship game.

We sat down with Covers betting analysts Jason Logan, Josh Inglis, and Rohit Ponnaiya to get their best NFL picks ahead of kickoff, including a quick-and-dirty opening drive play, Brock Purdy’s first Big Game performance… and whether or not Patrick Mahomes & Co. will be repeat champions.

What will happen on the first drive?

Josh Inglis is a big believer in Kansas City’s ability to score early. “Patrick Mahomes and this offense are +135 to score a point on their opening drive, which is something they have done in eight straight playoff games, and in 55% of their games this season,” he explains. 

Josh was especially impressed by the Chiefs’ opening 10-play 88-yard drive against the Baltimore Ravens, which he believes should be put in the Louvre. “The Chiefs will get a huge upgrade from a wet and windy Baltimore to Allegiant Stadium and the Reid-and-Mahomes connection is one that has dominated the beginning of playoff games since the last time these two clubs met in the Super Bowl,” he says.

Looking into his crystal ball, Josh foresees KC kicking off, Brock Purdy and the Niners stalling out early, and Mahomes needing just 20 yards to get into field-goal position. The ultra-dependable Harrison Butker can then take it from there.  

Pick: Chiefs to score on first drive (+135 at bet365

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What should bettors expect from Brock Purdy?

Unlike many pundits, Rohit Ponnaiya believes Purdy is more than just a game manager. However, he has far more faith in Kansas City’s defense than in the sophomore signal caller at this stage in his career.

“The Chiefs finished the regular season second in the league in both sacks (57) and pressure rate (27.8%),” he says. “That, combined with some strong coverage from corners L’Jarius Snead and Trent McDuffie, has helped them form one of the top pass defenses in the league. In addition, Steve Spagnuolo’s defense ranks eighth in the league in defensive DVOA against tight ends, so they should also be able to limit George Kittle.”

Not only do the Chiefs pass the eyeball test and look great in terms of traditional stats against the pass, but the analytics are also in their favor. They rank third in the league in defensive dropback EPA and second in defensive dropback success rate. 

Rohit also expects Purdy’s passing numbers to be limited by San Francisco’s strong running game. “The 49ers already run the ball at the third-highest rate in the NFL, and head coach Kyle Shanahan might be even more inclined to target the Chiefs’ weakness on the ground rather than test them through the air with a young QB like Purdy,” he explains.

Pick: Under 245.5 passing yards (-110 at FanDuel)

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Who will win Super Bowl LVIII? 

Jason Logan’s first Super Bowl bet was grabbing the Kansas City Chiefs on the moneyline at +115 following their win over the Lions. That number has since moved to +110, but JLo still sees plenty of value.

“I mean, what’s not to like?” he asks. “You have a head coach who is one of the best bets in football off a bye (Andy Reid is 31-7 straight up off a bye), the most clutch player in the league who’s also a Top 5 QB all-time, and a dangerous defense that ranks Top 10 in DVOA and EPA allowed per play and just so happens to be playing its best football right now.”

Jason has also been less than impressed with San Francisco’s D lately, pointing to the 770 total yards in their two postseason outings in 2024. He admits that Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs aren’t the high-powered offense they once were, but they’ve still shown glimpses of that output in the postseason — especially with TE Travis Kelce coming on.

“With the spread bouncing between dead numbers, the moneyline makes more sense for either side,” Jason says. “There have only been nine Big Games in which a team won the Lombardi Trophy but failed to cover the spread (0-7-2 ATS).

Pick: Chiefs moneyline (+110 FanDuel)

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