Wednesday, February 28, 2024

Premier League Odds & Best Bets This Week: Schedule, Picks for Matchday 28

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Arsenal have the chance to open up an eight-point lead at the top of the table heading into the international break this weekend. The Gunners host struggling Crystal Palace, led by former Arsenal legend Patrick Vieira, at the Emirates. Manchester City are away from league action, taking on Vincent Kompany’s Burnley in the quarterfinal of the FA Cup. Read on for our Premier League best bets for matchday 28 based on the best EPL odds.

There are fewer matches on the slate for matchday 28 because of teams involved in the FA Cup. Tottenham travel to bottom club Southampton off the back of an impressive win over Nottingham Forest last weekend when Harry Kane scored his 20th goal of the season.

A match with big relegation implications is at Molineux, as Wolves, who are three points above the drop zone, take on Leeds, who are one point from safety.

Elsewhere, can Graham Potter’s Chelsea make it four straight wins in all competitions when they take on relegation-threatened Everton? 

Here are our best Premier League bets for Matchday 28 (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook, PointsBet; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Check out our top soccer picks.

Premier League schedule and odds for Matchday 28

(odds via FanDuel)

  • Aston Villa (-145) vs. Bournemouth (+400)
  • Brentford (-105) vs. Leicester (+270)
  • Southampton (+360) vs. Tottenham (-130)
  • Wolves (+125) vs. Leeds (+240)
  • Chelsea (-220) vs. Everton (+650)
  • Arsenal (-410) vs. Crystal Palace (+1100)

Premier League best bets for Matchday 28

  • Moneyline: Wolves (+130) vs. Leeds (via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐
  • Spread: Arsenal (-1.5) vs. Crystal Palace (-125 via PointsBet) ⭐⭐⭐
  • Total: Brentford vs. Leicester Over 2.5 goals (-115 via PointsBet) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
  • Prop: Aston Villa vs. Bournemouth, both teams to score no draw (+170 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐

Check out our best Champions League odds.

Premier League top picks

Moneyline: Wolves (+130) vs. Leeds (via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐

Leeds have taken six points on the road all season. Their solo away win came at Anfield in October. The Whites travel to a Wolves side that has beaten Tottenham, Liverpool, and West Ham in three of its last four games at Molineux. They did suffer defeat to fellow strugglers Bournemouth during that span.

All of Wolves’ home wins this season have come without conceding. When they’ve given up a goal at home, they’ve lost. Leeds have failed to score in three of their last five Premier League away games, including each of their last two. 

In those two previous away matches, Leeds had an xG of 1.0 at Chelsea and 0.5 at fellow strugglers Everton. The Whites’ xGA was 1.5 and 1.4, respectively. Wolves have a shot conversion rate of 6.8% in the Premier League this season, their lowest in any of their nine campaigns in the competition. Only once have they scored more than twice in a Premier League game this term, which came in their 3-0 win over Liverpool earlier this month. 

Leeds don’t travel well, while Wolves have improved, especially at home, under Julen Lopetegui. Form is telling us to back the home team in this match. It will clearly be a tight affair, but I feel confident taking Wolves straight up on Saturday. They’re not huge favorites in this game, as the Premier League table indicates. Prices fluctuate from +120 for the home win via Caesars to +130 at DraftKings. Our other main books are giving odds to Wolves at +125.

Spread: Arsenal (-1.5) vs. Crystal Palace (-125 via PointsBet) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Crystal Palace’s defeat on Wednesday has left them just three points above the relegation zone. Their head coach, Patrick Vieira, said after that loss to Brighton that the Eagles have to change their mindset. However, things aren’t getting easier for them this weekend. They’re winless in 11 matches and have scored the third-fewest goals in the league this season. On Sunday, they head to league leaders Arsenal, who have won their last five matches in the competition. They’ve scored at least three goals in four of those games. 

The Gunners are unbeaten in nine London derbies this season, winning eight of them. No side has ever won nine London derbies in a single campaign. Palace have won just one London derby this season and have the worst goal difference of all the sides in these matches (-11). Arsenal have conceded the fewest goals in all of this season’s London derbies (4), and Palace have scored the fewest (5). 

All signs point to the Gunners covering, which is why I’m confidently sticking four stars on this play. Going off current form, it doesn’t look like Palace will be getting anything out of this game, which works in our favor for this play. DraftKings has the odds at -130, while PointsBet priced it at -120 at the start of Thursday. That soon dropped to -125, which is still the better price. Keep an eye on the market, especially as Arsenal are in European action late on Thursday.

Total: Brentford vs. Leicester Over 2.5 goals (-115 via PointsBet) ⭐⭐⭐

Brentford are a threat going forward. Only five teams have scored more than them (42) this season. The Bees’ xG is 38.5 for the season. They’ve scored a total of seven goals in their last three home matches, with an xG of 2.2 versus Southampton, 0.9 against Crystal Palace and 2.2 in their game with Fulham. 

Leicester travel to west London with the third-worst defense in the league. Their xGA in their last three away matches have been 1.4 at bottom club Southampton, who have scored the fewest goals in the division, 4.4 against Manchester United, and 1.7 away to Aston Villa. The Foxes have lost three of their four visits to London this season, conceding 12 goals during that span. That’s an average of three goals per game in London, which tilts this play in our favor. 

Brentford have lost just one of their 13 Premier League home games this season (seven wins, five draws) and are unbeaten in nine. Their striker, Ivan Toney, scored his 16th league goal of the season at Southampton on Wednesday. Only Erling Haaland and Harry Kane have scored more goals than him in the competition, so far. Half of Toney’s goals have been scored at home. 

The books believe that there will be goals in this match. BetMGM has this play as low as -130. The best value among our main sportsbooks is via PointsBet, who price it at -115.

Prop: Aston Villa vs. Bournemouth, both teams to score no draw (+170 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐

What we do know is Villa will score. They’ve found the net in all 13 of their Premier League games under Unai Emery. Their xG is 31.7 for the season and has been over 1.0 per game since the World Cup break, except for Arsenal’s visit to Villa Park. 

Add that expected goals, and impressive scoring record, to Bournemouth’s xGA of 44.1 and my opening statement is vindicated. The Cherries have been good in front of goal lately as well. They’ve scored six goals in their last five matches, which featured Newcastle, Manchester City, Arsenal, and Liverpool. These are four of the five best defenses in the league. 

Both Villa and the Cherries have lost three of their last six Premier League matches. Aston Villa are unbeaten in their last three games, Bournemouth had an impressive win over Liverpool last weekend and were seconds away from securing an impressive draw away to Arsenal the week before. 

The chances of both teams scoring in this match work in our favor. So long as they both find the net and there’s a winner, we triumph with this play. Bournemouth have impressed this month and could cause an upset on the road. But they do have the worst defense in the league, therefore they could equally get caught out on the attack. We could get our match winner out of either side with a flurry of goals looking likely. 

Premier League best bets made 3/16/2023 at 12:30 p.m. ET.

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