Friday, February 23, 2024

NFL Betting Strategies and Trends for the Conference Championships

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Examining the NFL Conference Championship betting trends is one of the best ways to decide what NFL betting strategies you are going to utilize for the two great games we have this week and where the public can find additional value.

As we break down the NFL betting trends for this week, we will look for the opportunity to apply a betting strategy called “Dutching,” which can help lower our risk and increase the likelihood of a profit.

Luckily for us, Pikkit tracks all of the bets placed in their community. That feature is one of the reasons we’ve named Pikkit the best bet-tracking app on the market.

NFL Betting Strategies for the Conference Championship

Dutching is one of many NFL betting strategies used to spread risk across multiple outcomes in a single event. The idea is to place multiple bets on different outcomes to ensure a profit regardless of the outcome.

The bettor will calculate the potential return for each outcome and then place bets in proportion to the potential return. This way, if one outcome loses, the bettor will still make a profit from the other outcomes.

Typically, in an NFL playoff game, there are two outcomes: a winner and a loser, with each team representing one or the other. However, most sportsbooks have prop bets that allow wagers to be placed on winning margins.

Want to win a free $150 on the NFL this season? As a new user on DraftKings Sportsbook, you can bet $5 and win $150 if your team wins!

Using my Behavior Bets sports betting model and its score prediction capabilities, I have come within an average of 5.3 points of each team’s actual score in any given week this NFL season. This allows me to have a high degree of confidence in potential winning margins.

With that confidence, I can place bets on two to four different winning margins, knowing I am going to lose on one to three of those bets. But the one I hit on will provide winnings that cover the losses and net me a profit.

Winning margin props always have plus odds at the sportsbooks, meaning as long as the lowest odds you select for a given winning margin net you a profit across the total amount that you bet, you’re golden. Below, I deploy this NFL betting strategy for each game.

AFC Championship: Chiefs vs. Bengals

Using my Behavior Bets model, I have the Kansas City Chiefs winning this game by three points in my Chiefs vs. Bengals prediction. The public is all over the Bengals in this one. The latest NFL betting trends in this game see 78% of the bets coming for the Bengals on the moneyline. Seemingly no one has faith in a hobbled Patrick Mahomes.

MORE: Bengals vs. Chiefs Prediction

Thus the beauty of Dutching. The winning margins I like for this one come from DraftKings, where you can get a $50 free bet to use on this strategy.

  • Kansas City 1-6 points +330
  • Cincinnati 1-6 points +285
  • Kansas City 7-12 points +550

The full breakdown of my Chiefs vs. Bengals betting strategies explains how I chose these margins over other ones.

NFC Championship: Eagles vs. 49ers

My Behavior Bets model sees the 49ers pulling an upset on the road in my Eagles vs. 49ers prediction. The NFL betting trends on this game are interesting, as the public is going with the Eagles nearly 60% of the time on the moneyline.

MORE: NFL Conference Championship Picks and Predictions Against the Spread

The best odds on winning margins for this one come from PointsBet, where you can eliminate risk on this strategy with “second chance bets.” The four margins I like are:

  • Eagles 1-6 points +310
  • 49ers 1-6 points +350
  • Eagles 7-12 points +450
  • 49ers 7-12 points +600

The full breakdown of my Eagles vs. 49ers betting strategies explains how I chose these margins over other ones.

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