Thursday, February 29, 2024

Indian Wells 2023: Tennis best bets, odds and predictions for Tuesday, March 14th

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Tennis best bets for Day 7 of the action at Indian Wells

The “fifth major” has delivered some excellent matches thus far, and the BNP Paribas Open at Indian Wells should only get better from here. We have a pair of tennis best bets for the action from Tennis Paradise on Tuesday, March 14th, so keep reading for our tennis predictions for the day and make sure you keep coming back for more! 

MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts have on March 14

Alexander Zverev vs. Daniil Medvedev 

Medvedev has been the best player on the planet over the last month or so, as he comes into this event on the heels of winning three titles in a row. This is, however, an event in which the 27-year-old has struggled in the past, as he very much prefers a faster court than this. Medvedev is known for hitting very flat shots from the baseline, but the courts at Indian Wells slow those shots down significantly. They just bounce a lot higher, which gives opponents time to chase them down.

Medvedev is coming off a match in which he dropped a set against Ilya Ivashka, who isn’t exactly the best player in the world. And if Medvedev can let one slip away against him, it shouldn’t surprise anybody if Zverev ends up forcing a decider here. Zverev is coming off a nice win over Emil Ruusuvori, who is a player that packs a lot of punch in every facet of the game. The 25-year-old has now looked rather impressive in back-to-back tournaments, and it doesn’t seem like it’ll be long before he reclaims his place amongst the sport’s elite.

We should also note that clay is arguably Zverev’s best surface, as he is 108-42 on the dirt in ATP-level matches throughout his career. Meanwhile, Medvedev is just 18-23 on clay, and it’s hard to ignore those records when you consider that this is essentially a clay-court tournament.

Medvedev might be scorching hot right now, but a bad fit is a bad fit. With that in mind, we’re rolling with Zverev to win a set here. The beauty of this play is that he doesn’t even have to win this match in order for us to cash in at plus-money odds.

Bet: Zverev to win a set (+115) 

Petra Kvitova vs. Jessica Pegula

We won a play on Kvitova to beat Jelena Ostapenko the other day, but now we’re fading the lefty. Kvitova simply didn’t play well in that meeting with Ostapenko, and she was gifted a win because of the lousy play of her opponent — after winning the first set 6-0, Ostapenko completely collapsed mentally. You can’t count on that happening against Pegula, who is a much sturdier player than Ostapenko both physically and mentally.

Pegula doesn’t have as much power as Ostapenko does, but she also doesn’t make as many mistakes. She’ll also have the luxury of having a packed crowd fully behind her, as the fans in the desert are going to be pulling for the American. It’s also somewhat hard to overlook the fact that Kvitova is just 62-69 against top-10 players in her career. For such an accomplished player, that record should be a lot better.

All in all, we’re just keeping this play simple and betting against a player that isn’t in the best of form right now. And while we’d rather this be a moneyline play, the odds were a little steep. Pegula should be able to cover a small game spread, so don’t be afraid to back that instead. 

Bet: Pegula -2.5 Games (-150) 

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