This article is part of our Tennis Picks series.
The BNP Paribas Open continues Tuesday with Round of 16 action from the hard courts of Indian Wells, California. It’s nice to see a few Americans favored at this stage of the tournament, but one of those favorites will have to overcome some head-to-head struggles against her opponent. Meanwhile, a former men’s champion here will look to add to his success at Indian Wells, while the top performer on the WTA Tour will face the only player to beat her in 2023. All Tennis Odds & Lines are taken from DraftKings Sportsbook, but you can sometimes find more favorable odds on some of these matches by checking mobile sportsbooks such as FanDuel Sportsbook, BetMGM, Caesars Sportsbook, or any of the other best sports betting sites. We offer exclusive sign-up bonuses for some of those sportsbooks, as well as specific bonuses for users located in Massachusetts, where online sports betting has officially gone live.
All matches at the BNP Paribas Open are best of three sets, which is the case for all ATP Masters 1000 and WTA 1000 level tournaments. A mix of players’ previous hard court results, form thus far at Indian Wells and stylistic matchups can help pinpoint intriguing betting opportunities, both among favorites likely to cruise to victory and underdogs ready to pull off upsets. The aforementioned underdogs are highlighted in the Upset Alert section, the Lock It In section covers players who can safely be considered overwhelming favorites, while the Value Bets section recommends enticing options in matchups that are considered closer to toss-ups.
Indian Wells Picks: Upset Alert
Petra Kvitova (+170) vs. Jessica Pegula
Pegula beat Kvitova at the US Open in September, but Kvitova has won all three of their other encounters, including a more recent meeting at the United Cup just before the calendar flipped to 2023. All four of those matches have come on hard courts, where Kvitova has managed to use her superior power off the ground and tricky lefty serve to push Pegula around. Pegula has been pushed to three sets in both of her matches here, including a 7-5 in the third escape against Anastasia Potapova on Sunday. Meanwhile, Kvitova’s coming off a 0-6, 6-0, 6-4 win over former French Open champion and 2023 Australian Open quarterfinalist Jelena Ostapenko.
Alexander Zverev (+285) vs. Daniil Medvedev
Indian Wells Odds: Lock It In
Frances Tiafoe (-390) vs. Alejandro Tabilo
Tabilo has capitalized on a favorable draw to get here, as his highest-ranked opponent up to this point has been No. 37 Maxime Cressy. While Tabilo did notch a top-20 win over Diego Schwartzman on clay last year, the world No. 187 has spent most of his career grinding against lower levels of competition on the challenger tour. Players at that level simply can’t replicate the tools possessed by the 16th-ranked Tiafoe, whose big serve and forehand should help the American seize control in this match.
Coco Gauff (-600) vs. Rebecca Peterson
Peterson’s match-tough, as evidenced by her 15-2 record in the last 17 matches, but this is a similar setup to the Tiafoe-Tabilo match in that Gauff possesses a different talent level from other players Peterson has faced lately. Having just celebrated her 19th birthday Monday, Gauff currently sits at No. 6 in the rankings, while the 103rd-ranked Peterson last beat a top-20 opponent in January of last year.
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina (-230) vs. Cristian Garin
Indian Wells Predictions: Value Bets
Cameron Norrie (+125) vs. Andrey Rublev
Norrie has played better in these conditions, with an 11-1 record in his last 12 matches at Indian Wells. Rublev made the semifinals here last year but was just 2-3 at this tournament prior to that run. The seventh-ranked Russian has a five-spot edge in the rankings and a 2-1 edge in the head-to-head, but this match is a pure toss-up on the slower hard courts of Indian Wells, which favor Norrie’s consistent style over Rublev’s superior firepower. As the underdog, Norrie’s the superior value here.
Aryna Sabalenka (-165) vs. Barbora Krejcikova
Krejcikova beat Sabalenka in Dubai in February, as the Australian Open champion faded in the third set to squander a hot start in a 0-6, 7-6 (2), 6-1 loss. That was Sabalenka’s first loss to Krejcikova in three career meetings — all on hard courts — and she should bounce back in this rematch. Sabalenka’s undefeated this year outside of that setback against Krejcikova, so she will likely manage to make the adjustments necessary to avoid another upset loss to this opponent.
Karolina Pliskova (-135) vs. Maria Sakkari